After weeks of trailing in national polls, Donald Trump has suddenly vaulted into a narrow lead over Hillary Clinton, according to a new national survey released Tuesday. The CNN/ORC poll showed the Republican presidential nominee with 45 percent of the vote from likely voters. His Democratic rival earned 43 percent in a race that included Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Trump’s two-point lead was within the poll’s margin of error of 3.5 percentage points, meaning the race is essentially tied. The real estate mogul led by one point in a head-to-head race.
But Trump seems to be doing well with independent voters, a crucial bloc in any election – 49 percent of those voters said they’d vote for Trump, while only 29 percent said they backed Clinton in the CNN/ORC poll. Johnson carries a significant proportion of independents, with 16 percent saying they’d vote for him.
Trump, however, is in trouble with minority voters – 71 percent of non-whites in the poll said they preferred Clinton.
Despite Trump’s recent rise in the polls – a CNN/ORC poll from early August, by comparison, showed Clinton with an 8-point lead – most voters said they still expect Clinton to win in November.
Clinton has consistently topped Trump since general election polling began. Trump briefly took the lead after the Republican National Convention in July, but Clinton came out on top again after the Democrats’ convention the following week.
Another poll released Tuesday shows Clinton ahead of Trump by four points in a four-way race with Johnson and Stein. The NBC News/Survey Monkey poll has Clinton with 46 percent to Trump’s 42 percent.
Clearly, the race has been narrowing in recent weeks, with Clinton seeing her large lead over Trump erased in many polls.