No matter the 2016 presidential match-up after the primary campaigns, the Democratic nominee was likely to have an edge over the Republican candidate once the election turned toward the November race. In the past six presidential elections, 32 states and the District of Columbia have voted solidly Democratic or solidly Republican. If none of that changes this year, Hillary Clinton starts out with . . .
Hillary Clinton starts with 242 electoral votes – just 28 shy of the 270 needed to win the White House. Donald Trump would start out with just 102 electoral votes if the trend holds. And if he wins Arizona, Montana, and the seven southern states that only voted Democratic when Bill Clinton was on the ballot, Trump would be up to only 180 votes.
That leaves 116 electoral votes from 10 states. As always, Florida becomes crucial. If Trump were to win nine of those 10 states, but still lost Florida, he would still lose. Said another way, Clinton can lose nine of the 10 contested states, but if Florida is her one win, she wins the White House.
To change the math, Trump must break through in one of the 19 states that have voted Democratic in every presidential election since 1992.
Here is a look at all 50 states and how they have voted in the past six presidential races since 1992.
Solidly Democratic – These states have voted for the Democratic nominee in every election since 1992: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin.
Democratic All But Once – These states have voted Democratic in five of the last six elections: Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico.
Lean Democratic – These voted Democratic in four of the last six elections: Nevada, Ohio.
Toss-Up – These states voted Republican three times and Democratic three times since 1992: Colorado, Florida.
Lean Republican – These states voted Republican in four of the last six elections – Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia.
Republican All But Once – Arizona, Georgia, Indiana, Montana, North Carolina.
Solidly Republican – States that voted Republican all six times: Alabama, Alaska, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Wyoming.