Judge Roy Moore’s campaign to win the Alabama Senate seat has become the political story of the year. The scurrilous charges brought by several women have put the seat in peril of falling into Democratic hands in a state that typically votes Republican by 25 percent. Though Moore has fallen behind in the race by 12 percent, he can win the seat – easily. But he must do one thing; if he does this, he wins the seat – guaranteed.
First, let’s set the context. It is being suggested that even if Moore wins the special election, he will not be seated by the Senate. Or if he is seated, he will quickly be expelled. This requires a two-thirds vote. Do the math. If the 48 Democratic senators vote him out – and they will – only 19 of the 52 Republican senators (less than 40 percent) have to vote against him. Be assured they will, because if Moore remains in the Senate, he will be the albatross of all albatrosses for the Republicans in the 2018 midterm elections.
But none of this will matter. Here’s why. If Moore does what I’m about to suggest, he will win election, and his critics will all go away. Well, they will mostly go away. If he doesn’t do what I’m about to suggest, he will lose the election. Said differently, the one thing that will win him the election will also keep his critics at bay – the senators who might otherwise turn him out from the Senate.
So what is the one thing Judge Moore can do to save his political career?
Pass a lie detector.
With just three weeks to go until the election, if Moore takes – and passes – a polygraph, his problems will fade enough to win him election in a red state. Moore has made claims that are immensely testable by polygraph. He has claimed he didn’t even know some of these women. He has claimed their specific accusations absolutely did not happen. He can clear himself by passing a lie detector.
Now, some might find two problems with this strategy – not that he has any other choices at this point. First, they might argue, polygraphs are not 100 percent accurate. And that is true. By most measures, polygraph accuracy is set at about 85 percent, which is why they are not admissible in court.
To this I would counter that Moore is facing the court of public opinion. And in this court, his other options have dried up. If he passes a test, most of his accusers will have to at least admit he might be telling the truth, whereas right now, few seem to really believe him.
The second criticism of my suggestion would be that the women may also take polygraphs. What if they pass, as well? That would leave us in a state of the unknown. And in Alabama, tie goes to the Republican. Confusion would be Moore’s best friend at this point, because right now, few are confused; they all seem to think he is guilty.
The worst thing that could happen if Moore takes a polygraph is that he loses absolutely nothing. A smart attorney – which is what he is – knows the results do not need to be made public. Moore can take the test quietly, in the privacy of his own office. If he fails, no one will know he even took the polygraph. So he loses nothing. The test only affects the race if he passes. In that case, he will scream the results from the highest hilltops of the Yellowhammer State. (Yes, Alabama is the Yellowhammer State – not sure what that means.)
That leads me to one obvious conclusion. I can’t be the only one to think of this. Surely, someone in Moore’s inner circle has made the same suggestion. After all, this is really his only chance of redemption. It’s the only way to win back his good reputation. It’s the only way to win election. More importantly, it’s the only way to preserve his personal character.
So why hasn’t Judge Moore already taken a polygraph, given that passing it will save him, while failing it will remain unknown and unannounced? I suggest – and this is only a guess – that he already has. Why wouldn’t he? Even if he is guilty, science confirms that some who are guilty still pass the test. He has nothing to lose by taking the polygraph and everything to gain. So, I suggest he has already taken a polygraph. If he failed, that explains why we haven’t heard about it. Or perhaps he passed, and is waiting for the best timing to announce that he passed the test – just days before the election, when it would be too late for the accusers to counter with polygraphs of their own.
Is Judge Roy Moore guilty? We don’t know, although the preponderance of the evidence is certainly against him. If he passes a polygraph, he will almost certainly be elected to the United States Senate. If he does not take – and pass – a polygraph, I have a better chance of making the 2020 Olympic Team as a decathlete and heavyweight boxer.
Moore must take and pass a polygraph if he wants a seat in the United States Senate. Otherwise, he’s toast.