It’s Clinton vs. Trump. So who wins? Pat Buchanan recently weighed in. “Undeniably, Democrats open with a strong hand,” he said. Here’s the evidence. If you give Clinton the states that Democrats have won in each of the last six elections, they start with 242 electoral votes, just 28 shy of the necessary total. Add to that a changing demography. In 2012, President Obama carried the two fastest growing voting blocs, Hispanics and Asians, with 70 percent of the vote.
Also benefiting the Democrats is that 50 percent of all voters receive government aid of some kind. They aren’t likely to vote out the party of big government. Still, there is hope for Trump and Republicans. He is the perfect candidate for one election in American history – this one. This is how he wins . . .
1. There is a shrinking Democratic leadership base. In the Obama years, Democrats have lost 900 state legislature seats, 12 governors, 69 U.S. House seats, and 13 Senate seats. Republicans have not held these advantages since the 1920s.
2. Due to Trump, viewership of the Republican debates was astronomical – with 24 million tuning in. That led to a massive turnout for Trump. Meanwhile, Democratic turnout plummeted.
3. Trump is the ultimate outsider. At a time when more people believe in UFOs than think the country is on the right track, being an outsider is a good thing. No one is more “outsider” than Trump, and “outsider” is what people want.
4. Trump is seen as a job creator. Get ready. You will hear it in every debate: “Hillary has never created a single job in her life.”
5. Immigration and trade issues favor Trump. He has touched a nerve. “Make America Great Again” is the most memorable mantra in recent history. And every day he adds, “America is getting ripped off.” His answers don’t matter much. Most voters are uninformed. They respond with their emotions – how they feel. And Trump identifies with that.
The betting money says Clinton wins. But keep in mind that only one time in the last 68 years has a party has held the White House for three successive terms. It is hard to imagine the ultimate insider, with low honesty numbers, being seen as the one to change America.
Can Donald Trump win? In any other year, no. But in 2016? Yes, he can.