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The Rushmore Report – Trump’s Biggest 2020 Challenge May Come from This Man

As President Trump looks toward reelection in 2020, he will have his eye on the likes of Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, and maybe even Oprah Winfrey. I’m sure the Republican Party is already gathering opposition research on each of these Democratic rivals. But it may be that Trump’s biggest challenge will come from someone else. He may never even get to the general election – because of this man. Trump needs to start looking to his left now, because this man may challenge him for the Republican nomination – and win. Who is it?

Mitt Romney.

I offer three reasons to look out for Mitt Romney if your name is Donald Trump.

1. Romney still wants it.

Mitt Romney has made no secret of his disdain for Donald Trump. He says things that sound more like a future candidate than a supporter of the leader of his own party. Why else would he run for the Senate in Utah, as is his plan for 2018? For Mitt Romney to only want the Senate seat – at this stage of his career – would be like Nick Saban applying to be an assistant coach at the University of Florida. Saban only wants to be on top. Romney has done it all, including serving as Governor of Massachusetts. He has nothing else to prove, or accomplish, short of the White House. He still wants it.

2. The Republican Party wants it.

Nothing would bring a broader collective smile to the faces of the Republican Party leadership than for the epitome of the establishment to run for president. Romney has won his party’s nomination before. He has all the right positions. He is steady. No one worries about him saying something crazy. And if the Democratic Party takes over one or both chambers of Congress in 2018, it is Romney – not Trump – who has the experience necessary to work with the other side. That’s exactly what he did in Massachusetts.

3. Many Americans want it.

People are tired of the uncivil nature of modern politics. Mr. Romney is a true gentleman. The masses would celebrate his demeanor. Independents will especially rally behind his centrist-appearing positions and style.

Just one problem

This all sounds good for the Romney Camp. But there’s just one problem. Donald Trump’s supporters are rabid. They will show up in primaries. The genteel nature of Mitt Romney will actually work against him. While he can afford to fund his campaign all the way to the Convention, he will not excite voters. Trump only needs to muster 35 percent of self-identified Republicans to gain 50 percent of the actual Republican vote. His people will turn out to vote.

So what would happen?

It’s hard to say. My guess is that a Romney run would do to Trump what Ted Kennedy did to President Carter in 1980. it will weaken the incumbent president and erode enough of his base to put his general election bid in jeopardy. I don’t think Romney would win the nomination, but he might cause Trump to lose the general election.

There are those who will suggest that is Romney’s main goal anyway. So either way, he wins.

The Rushmore Report – Four Problems with Oprah’s Speech

On Sunday evening, Oprah Winfrey received the Cecille B. DeMille Lifetime Achievement Award. She proceeded to launch into an emotional speech about the power of women to fight back against sexism and sexual malfeasance – a speech that led to widespread celebration in Hollywood. But there are four problems that jumped out from her speech.

First, let us agree that everyone in Hollywood knew about the problem of sexual harassment and assault and nobody did anything for years, but now they apparently think one speech from the most powerful woman in the history of media can cure all ills.

Oprah’s speech was quite good, of course. She’s a terrific performer, and she’s world famous for her ability to connect with her audience on a personal level. The speech led NBC to tweet out its support for her presidential candidacy, and led actress Reese Witherspoon to elevate Oprah to the level of Jesus:

“I will now officially divide time like this: Everything that happened before @Oprah speech and everything that happened after.”

So what was so special about the speech?

Not much, in truth.

Oprah didn’t name any names. She didn’t explain where she had been for the prior several decades, as all of this unfolded. She didn’t encourage any serious measures against sexual harassment and assault. She channeled the feelings of many women, which is terrific, for what it’s worth – but it isn’t as though women have been met with scorn and hatred for telling their stories of sexual assault and harassment. The level of national sympathy for victims has been overwhelming, as it should be.

In fact, there were several rather insulting moments in Oprah’s speech that we’re all supposed to ignore (and hey, if she’s a purported presidential candidate, she deserves to have her speeches analyzed). Here they are, in order:

1. Oprah implied that matters are the same for black women today as they were for black people generally in 1964.

She led off her speech by talking about how moved she was in 1964 when Sidney Poitier won the DeMille Award. “I remember his tie was white, and of course his skin was black, and I had never seen a black man being celebrated like that. I tried many, many times to explain what a moment like that means to a little girl, a kid watching from the cheap seats as my mom came through the door bone tired from cleaning other people’s houses.”

This is quite moving and beautiful. But then Oprah feels the need to state that young black girls will treat her victory in 2018 the same way, which is asinine. Sorry, it is. Oprah stated, “In 1982, Sidney received the Cecil B. DeMille award right here at the Golden Globes and it is not lost on me that at this moment, there are some little girls watching as I become the first black woman to be given this same award.”

Michelle Obama has been First Lady. Condoleezza Rice has been Secretary of State, Loretta Lynch has been Attorney General, and Susan Rice has been national security advisor. Many of today’s top stars are black women, in music and sports and television and movies. It’s insipid for Oprah to compare herself to Poitier, or 1964 with 2018.

2. Oprah’s press pandering

Yes, we all appreciate the press for doing the hard work of digging. But it’s nothing but pandering to suggest that they’ve engaged in the “insatiable dedication to uncovering the absolute truth that keeps us from turning a blind eye to corruption and to injustice.” It’s even more ridiculous to say this is the context of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, an organization of international journalists who report on . . . Hollywood, where they apparently had nothing to say for decades about sexual harassment and abuse.

3. “Your truth”

This one is a pet peeve. Oprah stated, “What I know for sure is that speaking your truth is the most powerful tool we all have.” She’d go on to praise women for telling their stories of assault and harassment, which is wonderful and positive. But the phrase “your truth” is the opposite of truth – there’s the truth, and there’s your opinion. End of story.

4. She equated the status of a raped black woman in Alabama in 1944 to women in Hollywood today.

Oprah told the story of Recy Taylor, who was kidnapped and raped in Alabama by six white men. She died only ten days ago. The story is heartbreaking. But then Oprah stated, “She lived as we all have lived, too many years in a culture broken by brutally powerful men. For too long, women have not been heard or believed if they dare speak the truth to the power of those men. But their time is up. Their time is up.”

This is plainly absurd. To compare the fate of women in Hollywood in 2018 with the fate of Recy Taylor in 1944 is ridiculous. But it’s precisely the sort of nonsense Oprah routinely preaches: when The Butler was released in 2013, Oprah compared Trayvon Martin to lynching victim Emmitt Till.

The end of Oprah’s speech was magnificent, but it would have been nice if she had used some of her power to fight the Harvey Weinsteins of the world years ago, rather than leading from behind.

About the Author

Ben Shapiro is the editor of Daily Wire and hosts the most popular conservative podcast in the world.

The Rushmore Report: The Real Democratic Platform for 2018 and Beyond

Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Shumer (NY) has blasted the Republican-backed tax law. Nancy Pelosi calls it “the worst legislation in American history.” The fact is, the Democratic Party has never been more unified. Their platform is simple – if Trump is for it, they are against it. No leading Democratic voice has said a single positive thing about the plummeting unemployment rate, a record stock market, victories over ISIS, tax cuts for 80 percent of the American people, or the growing American economy. Because the party is rooted in what they are against – Trump – it’s easy to define their platform for 2018 and beyond.

Given their universal, undying opposition to everything Trump and the Republican-led Congress have done this past year, what is clear is that Democrats, once given the opportunity, will reverse every policy and undo every law that has been passed by the Republican majority.

So, based on the Democratic Party’s stated opposition to the actions taken on the other side of the aisle, we can glean their emerging platform. The new Democratic Party – in coming elections – will stand for ten bedrock principles.

1. Higher taxes

Not one Democrat in the Senate or the House voted for this week’s tax bill. They called it “the worst piece of legislation ever.” So we can expect the party, should they win majorities in the Senate and House in 2018, to pass higher taxes, to return the rates to the Obama years. So if your family earns $45,000 per year, Democrats will reverse the $2,000 tax break Republicans just passed. By returning rates to the Obama years, those making $49,000-$86,000 will see their taxes go up by $930. Those earning $86,000-$149,000 will see an $1,800 per year tax increase. The Democratic Party – given the chance – will hike taxes across the board, to the levels they maintained through the Obama years.

2. More illegal immigration

Democrats have criticized every Trump statement and action on illegal immigration, from the day he was inaugurated. Illegal immigration has dropped by 40 percent since Trump took office. Therefore, by definition of their opposition to Trump, Democrats will loosen border security in an effort to open the floodgates for a massive increase in illegal immigration – back to the levels they tolerated the past eight years.

3. Return the Dow to 18,000

We hear it all the time. Trump’s policies favor “Wall Street over Main Street.” This explains the jump in the stock market from 18,000 to nearly 25,000 in just one year. Never mind, this means trillions of more dollars in retirement accounts for over 120,000 million Americans. Trump’s pro-business posture led to this growth in the stock market, so it must be reversed. This means returning the market to its pre-Trump level of 18,000 which Democrats praised at the time. A growth in the stock market is good, but enough is enough. And for Democrats, 18,000 is enough.

4. Resurgence of ISIS

Under Trump’s policies – which again have been opposed universally by Democrats – ISIS has ceded 80,000 square miles to American forces. ISIS has relinquished control of such major cities as Raqqa, Falluja, Ramadi, Baquba, and Abu Ghraib. So, in support of pre-Trump foreign policy and its results, the Democratic platform will call for American troops to give land back to ISIS, along with these major cities. If Trump’s policies were wrong, so were the results of those policies.

5. More regulations

By some counts, President Trump has ended over 800 regulations in an effort to free up businesses to set the pace of a capitalistic society. This has led to economic growth of over three percent and record hirings. This will stop under Democratic leadership. Strangling regulations – most that were enacted under Obama – will come back.

6. Return of the corporate tax rate to the highest level in the world

While Democrats say the former rate of 35 percent – the highest in the industrialized world – was too high, they never introduced a single piece of legislation in the past 30 years to do anything about it. They were completely comfortable with a high corporate tax rate, resulting in record numbers of American businesses relocating overseas. So once they win elections in 2018 and 2020, Democrats will return the rate to the level they found acceptable for the last 30 years. American businesses should pay more in taxes than their competition anywhere else in the world.

7. Reduce growth from four percent back to one percent

The Obama recovery was the worst economic recovery in American history, averaging one percent growth per year. Yet, Democrats have universally condemned Trump’s economic policies, despite leading to a near-four percent annual growth rate in the economy. So, it stands to reason, Democrats will enact whatever policies are necessary to reduce the growth of the economy back to a more meager one percent.

8. Higher unemployment

When President Trump took office in January, the unemployment rate was 4.8 percent. Today, at 4.1 percent, the rate is lower than it was at any point in the Obama Administration. This is unacceptable. The unemployment rate is at its lowest rate in 17 years; Democrats will reverse the trend. The only other option would be to admit what Trump is doing is actually working.

9. North Korean sanctions come down

From 2008 to 2016 the Democrats had the White House. And North Korea continued to grow as a nuclear threat. Still, the Obama Administration did not enact any of the sanctions Trump has put on the rogue regime in just one year. Again, since they oppose his foreign policy, it stands to reason, the Democratic Party will reverse these sanctions.

10. Move Israeli embassy back to Tel Aviv

Sure, President Obama – like Clinton and Bush before him – promised to move the American embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem. They never followed through on this promise. President Trump made the same promise, but actually followed through on his word. And for that he met universal condemnation from the Democratic Party. While this move was praised by Israel, the only democratic state and our strongest ally in the Middle East, Democrats ridiculed the action. So expect them to reverse this move if given the chance.

Will Democrats really take these ten actions? I’m simply taking them at their collective word. They opposed every action of the Trump Administration that has led to such things as the retreat of ISIS, lower unemployment, a record stock market, middle class tax cuts, and economic growth. So it stands to reason that the Democratic platform will be to reverse these gains to pre-Trump levels.

It only stands to reason that the Democratic Party will seek to undo what they opposed in the first place. So for those of you who want to pay more in taxes, see companies move overseas, irritate Israel, increase the unemployment rate, and relinquish gains made against ISIS, you know what to do – vote Democrat.

The Rushmore Report: New Poll – Dems’ Top Choice for 2020

Rasmussen Reports has just released a fresh survey of 1,000 likely Democratic voters to see who they like for president in the 2020 election. The Democratic youth movement continues. Whereas the top five Democratic leaders in Congress are age 75, on average, the leading choice for the White House would be 78 upon his inauguration.

Democrats’ leading man is former Vice President Joe Biden, garnering the support of 41 percent of those surveyed. The next three candidates are all about the same age: Bernie Sanders (20 percent), Elizabeth Warren (11 percent), and Hillary Clinton (nine percent).

Party leaders who are touting their “strong bench” have no answer for the simple facts. A full 82 percent of the preferred candidates have been around since the days when a CD was a banking term, Blackberry was something you ate, Gunsmoke was a radio show, and Al Gore had yet to invent the Internet.

Waiting in the wings, should Democrats decide to nominate a candidate not yet on Medicare, are the following: New Jersey Senator Cory Booker (five percent) and outgoing Virginia Governor Terry McAuliffe (two percent). Let us know if you can pick either out of a lineup.

To summarize, 82 percent of Democrats want someone close to 80, seven percent want someone in his 50s, and the other 11 percent don’t know what they want.

For his part, Biden is traveling the country to promote his new book. He has not ruled out a run in 2020. He says he is “not considering a run at this time,” and “there are plenty of other good candidates out there.” Both statements are code for “I’m running.”

What’s interesting – but not surprising – is that the media has not said a thing about his age. I’m talking about the same media who said Ronald Reagan was too old to run in 1980. Never mind, Biden would be older on his inauguration than Reagan was when he left office – after eight years in the White House.

The 41 percent who support Biden is up 15 points since February. Self-proclaimed moderates prefer Biden (34 percent), to Sanders (15 percent).

There are four take-aways from the new Rasmussen poll.

  1. Democrats have no new candidates.
  2. Democrats love Joe Biden.
  3. Joe Biden is running in 2020.
  4. The election is too far out for any of this to mean much right now.

The Rushmore Report: President Trump’s Surprising New Poll Numbers

According to Real Clear Politics, President Trump’s approval rating is 38 percent. Some polls have his numbers even lower than that. But the most reliable and recent poll brings good news to the White House – news you won’t hear in the mainstream media. As opposed to the other polls considered by Real Clear Politics, Rasmussen only considers likely voters. And their poll – out Tuesday – brings shocking news.

Tuesday’s Rasmussen survey of 1,500 likely voters found Trump’s approval rating at 46 percent, which is in line with other presidents’ numbers – presidents who went on to win reelection.

The president quickly tweeted: “One of the most accurate polls last time around. But #FakeNews likes to say we’re in the 30s. They are wrong. Some people think numbers could be in the 50s. Together, WE will MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!”

The poll also found that the number of Americans who believe the country is headed in the right direction is just 33 percent. But many of them blame Congress, not the president. Meanwhile, their confidence in the jobs market reached a new high.

From this new survey, we draw three conclusions.

1. President Trump’s approval is higher than the media wants you to know.

2. President Trump’s approval rating is still below water, well under 50 percent.

3. Poll numbers in November, 2017, have virtually no bearing on the 2020 election, which is three years away. Remember, President George H. W. Bush had the highest approval rating in the history of polls – 91 percent – at this point in his presidency, but garnered only 37 percent of the vote three years later, in his bid for reelection.

I love polls because I love numbers. While the new numbers by Rasmussen are interesting, especially given they only survey likely voters, and while the new numbers bring comfort to Trump supporters, these poll numbers will be long forgotten by the time the 2020 election cycle begins. But considered within the context of Trump’s recent poll numbers, and within the context of 24-hour attacks by most media outlets, a 46 percent approval rating for President Trump will be met with great enthusiasm among his supporters.

The Rushmore Report: Three Democrats Who May Run for President in 2020 – Who You’ve Never Heard Of

With the 2016 election just 11 months old, the 2020 election is already making news. President Trump filed re-election paperwork on Inauguration Day. And now several Democrats are making noise about running, as well. With Trump’s approval ratings mired in the 30s, there will be almost no limit to the number of Democrats who will jump into the race. There will be the usual suspects: Joe Biden, Elizabeth Warren, Cory Booker, Bernie Sanders, and yes, Hillary Clinton. But let’s consider some others who may surprise. Here are three Democrats who may run for president – who you’ve probably never heard of.

1. John Delaney

At this point, Rep. John Delaney of Maryland is the only serious declared Democratic candidate for office. Elected to Congress in 2012, Delaney announced his intent to run for president in July. For most outside his district or immediate family, they had not heard of Mr. Delaney. His district stretches from the D.C. suburbs to western Maryland, which is a more conservative area of the state. In announcing his candidacy, Delaney said, “To do this work with the commitment it deserves, I will not be running for re-election to the House of Representatives. No games, no cat-and-mouse, no backup plan at the 11th hour if a focus group goes badly.”

2. Eric Garcetti

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti is another contender whose name has been floated for both California governor and U.S. president. His term doesn’t end until 2022, but in an interview with the Los Angeles Times last week, he didn’t rule out the possibility of running for either. He said only that he is “committed to the people of Los Angeles.”

3. Seth Moulton

Just 38 years of age, Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts would be the youngest Democratic candidate. He would be 41 on Inauguration Day of 2021. A former Marine Corps officer and graduate of Harvard Business School, Moulton serves on the House Budget Committee and is a ranking member on the House Armed Services Committee’s Subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations. Moulton has said he wants to see new Democratic leadership before the 2018 elections. While some insiders have already approached him about running, he says he probably won’t run. Which means he probably will run.

The Rushmore Report: John Kasich Threatens to Leave GOP – Who Cares?

Ohio Republican Governor John Kasich is troubled with the nomination of Roy Moore as Senator from Alabama. Because he sees Moore as a fringe candidate, and because of the rhetoric coming out of the White House, Gov. Kasich says he wants to “fix the party,” and if it can’t be fixed, he may pull out altogether. Forgive my skepticism, but I think there may be more to the story than Kasich is saying.

In a recent interview with CNN’s Jake Tapper, Kasich said he is still holding out hope the GOP can shift back to what he sees as a more centrist party. He said, “If the party can’t be fixed, Jake, then I’m not going to be able to support the party. Period. That’s the end of it.” He continued, “I mean, I’m worried about our country and my kids’ future. But have I given up? Of course not.”

Kasich then criticized the party for its stance on immigration. “If the Republican Party is going to be anti-immigration, if it’s not going to be worried about the debt, if it’s going to be anti-trade, this is not where our party can be.”

First, being for border security and simply enforcing current federal immigration laws is not “anti-immigration.” And one could argue that voters didn’t want Trump to tackle the debt since he campaigned on not touching Social Security. As for trade, both parties have increasing numbers of voters within their own base who are skeptical of free trade.

So what is Gov. Kasich’s real agenda? As I have said before – on this platform – he enjoys poking his finger in the eye of party conservatives. He earned the condemnation of party leaders when he decided to jump on the Obamacare bandwagon and expand Medicaid in his state – a move that has cost his state dearly.

Call me a skeptic, but Kasich’s plan seems pretty clear to me. Since being denied his party’s nomination for president or vice president in 2016, he has been edgy about all things Republican. So here it is. John Kasich still has his eye on the big prize. He wants to be president. And he knows that won’t happen as a Republican. So he is positioning himself as the right-leaning common sense Independent who can try to siphon off votes from both sides. He hopes some on the left will support his soft positions on Obamacare and immigration, while attracting fiscal conservatives at the same time.

It’s really no gamble at all. He is term-limited in Ohio. It’s president in 2020 or bust. He has run out of political options. So expect this kind of rhetoric to continue. Expect to see Mr. Kasich on CNN more than Fox News. Expect him to form an exploratory committee in late 2018. Expect Gov. Kasich to try to become President Kasich.

Will it work? Probably not. But I said the same thing about that Trump fellow a year back.

Stay tuned . . .

The Rushmore Report: 20 Possible Presidential Candidates for 2020

Now that the 2016 presidential election is on the books, it’s time for the next one – 2020. Sure, after an especially divisive and vitriolic election, many Americans are looking for a break from politics. But for the ambitious, as well as those aggrieved by last November’s results, the next presidential election is around the corner. We have whittled down the crop of contenders. Here are our top 20 candidates, in alphabetical order.

Democrats

John Bel Edwards – Louisiana governor

Bill de Blasio – New York City mayor

Cory Booker – New Jersey senator

Sherrod Brown – Ohio senator

Julian Castro – former secretary of housing and urban development

Andrew Cuomo – New York governor

Russ Feingold – former Wisconsin senator

Tulsi Gabbard – Hawaii U.S. representative

Kamala Harris – California senator

Tim Kaine – Virginia senator

Amy Klobuchar – Minnesota senator

Joe Manchin – West Virginia senator

Thomas Perez – Democratic Party chair

Bernie Sanders – Vermont senator

Tom Steyer – San Francisco billionaire

Jon Tester – Montana senator

Elizabeth Warren – Massachusetts senator

Tom Wolf – Pennsylvania governor

Republicans

Ted Cruz – Texas senator

John Kasich – Ohio governor

About the Author

James Pindell writes for The Boston Globe.

The Rushmore Report: Kasich (Rep) and Hickenlooper (Dem) – 2020 Dream Team?

Ohio Gov. John Kasich (Republican), and Colorado Gov. John Hickenlooper (Democrat), have reportedly discussed the idea of forming a “unity” presidential ticket to run for the White House in 2020. Kasich and Hickenlooper would run as independents, with Kasich at the top of the ticket. The concept is to bring the country together behind two centrists to represent the broad middle ground. Could it work?

In a word, no.

A source close to both men said, “What they are trying to show the country is that honorable people can disagree, but you can still solve problems together. It happens in business and it happens in families. Why can’t it happen in Washington?”

That’s easy. Because Washington is neither a business nor a family.

Two weeks ago, Kickenlooper told Politico, “I don’t think Kasich would ever do that. I don’t think it’s in the cards. But I do like the idea of working with him in some context at some point.”

Could this be that point?

Yes, it could be, except for one thing – it won’t work.

The two governors are working together on major policy issues such as healthcare and immigration – a rare, bipartisan alliance at a time of deep-seeded acrimony between the two political parties. The next steps for the men would be more policy than politically focused.

The source continued, “Watch on the policy front as they expand beyond healthcare and also include other governors in the coalition.”

So why won’t it work? I mean, President Trump has historically low poll numbers. And Congress is polling at even lower numbers. The vast majority of Americans don’t approve of either party or their leaders. The current face of the Democratic Party, House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, is taken less seriously than new episodes of The Gong Show.

So why won’t this centrist, come together strategy work? For four reasons.

1. Kasich and Hickenlooper don’t agree on much.

That’s why one is called a Republican and the other a Democrat. Other than their rhetoric – which is commendable – the only things the governors have in common is the same first name and two last names no one quite knows how to spell. Kasich is pro-life, while Hickenlooper is pro-choice. Kasich is in agreement with 90 percent of the Republican platform; Hickenlooper supports 90 percent of the Democratic platform. The vice president pretty much needs to support the president’s agenda. And Hickenlooper is on record as opposing most of what Kasich supports. That makes sense – he’s a Democrat.

2. Few would vote for them.

Those who think a “centrist” ticket can win need only consult Presidents Perot and Anderson. It’s like the fellow who couldn’t decide if he was for the Union or the Confederacy, so he wore gray pants and a blue shirt. He got shot by both sides. The deal is, many people say they want a centrist, but when you drill down, at least 80 percent agree mostly with either the left of the right. So when it comes time to vote, they will vote for the man and party which represents their views. The muddled middle just isn’t that large. That’s why, in most elections, less than ten percent vote for one party for president, but another down ballot.

3. They can’t raise money.

People give money out of passion. And few people are passionate about being in the middle. Seeing Congress “work” doesn’t stoke passion, let alone financial contributions. Both political parties will be flush with cash. That means advertising. And that is critical for any election.

4. The Trump factor will make it impossible for them to win.

In 1992, most of the 19 percent who voted for Perot knew they were taking votes away from either Bush or Clinton. But they didn’t care, because people weren’t that passionate about Bush or Clinton. But that’s not the world we live in today. No one is undecided about President Trump. Those who support him would never slide to the middle. And those who oppose him would never divide their votes between the Democratic nominee and the centrist ticket.

So can a Kasich-Hickenlooper ticket win in 2020? On a scale of 1-10, the chances are 0.

The Rushmore Report: Four Reasons Trump Will Likely Be Reelected in 2020

President Donald J. Trump has historically low approval numbers. He gets bad press – every day. Many in his own party have abandoned him. He has failed to get passage of healthcare or tax reform. The number of officials who have quit his administration or been fired is breathtaking. But Trump will most likely get reelected in 2020. Why? There are at least four reasons Mr. Trump is in good position to win a second term.

1. Great things are happening – we just aren’t hearing about them.

More Americans have work today than at any time in American history. The unemployment rate after six months of Trump’s Administration is lower than it was at any point in President Obama’s entire eight years. ISIS is losing for the first time. Retirement accounts are flush, with the Dow hitting 29 all-time records in six months. A great Supreme Court nominee has been successfully seated. So when 2020 comes around, while the left attacks President Trump, expect a replay of Reagan, 1980 – “Are you better off today than you were four years ago?” For most, the answer will be “Yes.” And that bodes well for the incumbent.

2. The opposition is a train wreck.

At no point in American history have Democrats had less control in Congress and state houses. Only six – yes six – states are under Democratic control (governor, senate, house). And their party is divided between the liberal wing and the more liberal wing. The three Democrats in the highest level of leadership are all over 70. To say this is not a forward-looking party is to understate the obvious. Democrats’ agenda of “Just block Trump” has already grown tiresome, with over three more years to come. You can’t beat someone without someone to beat them. And so far, the Democrats have no one to beat Trump. They can’t even hold onto who they have now, having just seen the West Virginia Governor switch from the Democratic to the Republican Party.

3. Popularity is overrated.

President Trump is unpopular. That is beyond debate. But what is debatable is whether or not it really matters. Case in point – Richard M. Nixon. Nobody every really liked Nixon. They liked Ike, but only tolerated Nixon. He had a demeanor that made used car salesmen look like comedians. He was insecure, abrasive, vulgar, and humorless. Other than that, he was fun to be with. So having seen Nixon up close – for eight years as Vice President and four years as President – what did the American people do? They reelected him in 1972 with a 49-state landslide. Popularity is overrated.

4. The numbers are better than they appear.

Sure, Trump’s approval ratings are in the 30s. Sure, those are historically low numbers. And no, he can’t be reelected with those numbers. But keep a few things in mind. First, a recent poll shows that about 38 percent will vote for Trump no matter what. Second, he won the White House with 48 percent of the vote. So, he doesn’t need to convince 50 percent to vote for him – just ten percent. If he can turn ten percent of the 62 percent that are currently not on his side, he will win. I did the math. That means that of all the people who are currently opposed to Trump, he only needs to convince 17 percent of that group to change – in the next three years. And third, Trump remains more popular than Democratic leaders Schumer and Pelosi, who will appear on more Republican ads than Republicans themselves.

George H. W. Bush had the highest approval rating of any president ever – at 93 percent. That was at the start of the Gulf War. Do you remember what happened a couple of years later? He lost his bid for reelection. In politics, three years is a lifetime. President Trump’s low poll numbers in 2017 matter about as much as a first quarter field goal against the New England Patriots and Tom Brady.

Will Donald Trump win the 2020 election? Maybe not. But at this point, he has a better chance than anybody else.